Alerts

Of 21 alerts with a rated press report, we saw 13 first and the press saw 7 first. 1 was within the same hour. The median lead is +0.7 h. 2 alerts with a match are left out: we read the press from before them before the alert existed, so an earlier report could be missing.

Of 4 alerts with a rated newsroom post, we saw 0 before the lab posted and the lab posted 3 first. 1 was within the same hour. The median lead is −0.1 h.

118 alerts rated notable or critical since 2026-09-08. 27 are less than 7 days old, so we haven’t searched them yet. A positive lead means we saw it first.

“We saw it” is when we fetched the page that showed the change. When an alert cites several changes, we use the earliest. A removal counts from the check that found it gone. The alert itself can be written up to an hour later.

Once 7 days have passed, we search GDELT (a public index of news sites) and the lab’s own newsroom feed for 7 days either side. The search terms come from the changes themselves: the model name, the department, the filer and form. A model reads every headline and says whether it reports the same event. We show the earliest one it says does. Until every earlier candidate is rated, the row says “Not yet rated”.

The press time is the quarter hour GDELT read the article, not when the outlet published it. GDELT doesn’t read every outlet, and paywalled wires and newsletters are thin in it. It gives us headlines but no article text, so an article counts only when the event is in its headline or web address, and each match is judged on its headline. We never fetch the articles.

A report from more than 7 days before we saw it isn’t searched, so an old story can’t show as a lag here. Anthropic and xAI publish no newsroom feed, so their rows show no newsroom time, and we don’t read DeepSeek’s, Alibaba’s or Moonshot AI’s newsrooms yet. Meta’s feed holds only its newest 10 posts. Mistral stamps its posts near noon UTC, so read those times as dates.

Times are in UTC. Leads are rounded to a tenth of an hour. A lead isn’t a trading signal, and this isn’t investment advice. It says when a public page changed against when someone wrote about it.

Press data from the GDELT Project (gdeltproject.org). Every candidate and rating is in the bulk exports as track_record_candidates and track_record_verdicts.